The Reichstag building in Berlin, Germany © Jörg Braukmann/Wikicommons
Germany may be relatively wealthy by European standards, but its riches are not endless (whose are?) and poor people in Germany, of which there are quite a few, of course, don’t want to see the country spending whatever wealth it has on foreigners.
Berlin has felt obliged to strengthen its controls at the border to exclude those asylum seekers it doesn’t want, (or at least that many of its citizens don’t want) which in reality for many Germans is most of them. It shouldn’t feel the need to. And Germany is nothing like as well off as many of its people believe. Indeed, it has a deep economical problem that is not being addressed. There is, of course, no shortage of people in a wide variety of places who are desperately poor and in danger of meeting a violent end who would love to start a new life, whether in Germany, France, Belgium or any other relatively peaceful country, (the “relatively” is important here), preferably in Europe, but especially, it seems, in comfortable and relatively compassionate Germany.
In fact, Germany has deep economic problems, although it has denied they exist, even to itself but, especially, to its people. Governments can only focus, it seems, on one crisis at a time and the degree of importance is often dictated by the populist media. However, large-scale industry has been moving away to other locations, while its problems with asylum seekers have made it shut its collective eyes to a worsening economic situation. When you compare Germany’s economy with that of Russia, you may get a shock. Russia’s economy is growing at an annualised rate of 4% and things are looking good, and of course immigration is not the big issue it is in Germany. Of the EU’s 448.8-million residents, 42.4 million were born outside the Union while 27.3 million are not even EU citizens, although they make up some 6% of the population. Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz does not appear consistent over the issue, either, signing a migration deal with Uzbekistan to enable its people to work in Germany whilst simultaneously making it easier to deport incomers he doesn’t want. Perhaps we should not be surprised that he showed the lowest ever approval ratings for a German leader, even before the current economic crisis was recognised. Despite this, recent polls have suggested that most Germans see immigration as a more pressing problem than the economy. They’re wrong. Germany’s economy is rated as the weakest in the G7.
Rapidly rising inflation and increasing borrowing costs have hit blue chip companies like Volkswagen and Intel hard in Germany, as well as at several companies in France. Together, Germany and France have Europe’s worst-performing economies. The latest Weil European Distress Index, from April 2024, which surveyed 3,750 listed companies, revealed a number of worrying issues in the corporate sector. Examining such issues as liquidity, profitability, exposure to risk and positions on the issues of valuation, investment and overall stress levels, Weil seemed to reckon that things are not looking good for Berlin (or Paris). Needless to say, Germany with its perceived wealth still poses an ill-deserved attraction for asylum seekers wanting to escape poverty and war, but few people outside economic circles realise what’s going on there. Everyone knows Germany has cash (relatively speaking), jobs and ingenuity, so who can blame them? Wealth means an end, hopefully, to potential starvation and perhaps the chance to get a job, to work and earn money, and get children educated. If only it was so simple.
It’s those countries around the edges of Europe, which are usually the first places asylum seekers arrive, and leaders there are, unsurprisingly, not pleased with Germany’s new-found opposition to granting asylum, with Austrian interior minister Gerhard Karner saying that his country will not accept what he referred to as “Germany’s rejects”. Similarly, the Greek prime minister, Kyriakos Mitsotakis has stated that his country won’t accept Germany’s rejects either, while the prime minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, has described Germany’s action as “unacceptable”. He said that Poland doesn’t need tighter border controls but better discussion about the problems with Berlin. Poland has even accused Russia of smuggling people from Africa and the Middle East through Belarus and on towards the Polish border.
It’s not kindness on Moscow’s part, of course, nor generosity towards the poor asylum-seekers; Putin likes to cause problems for other countries in any way he can, and it seems he can afford to. He is not a nice man. Hungary’s far-right Prime Minister, Viktor Orban, has poked fun at Scholz and invited him to “join the club” of those opposed to migration in any form. Olaf is almost certain to ignore him, as most people do. We must remember that Germany, nevertheless, accepted more than a million asylum seekers in the period 2015-2016, many of them from Syria, and it has also taken in more than a million Ukrainians since Orban’s pal, Vladimir Putin, decided to invade that country in a bid to take it over, being the megalomaniac he clearly is.
Germany is often thought of as being “at the heart of Europe” because of its geographical location at the centre. It has land borders with no fewer than nine countries and is now seeking to curb irregular migration, turning people away from its borders if it can, preferably by persuasion, not force of arms. Previously, it had an “open door” policy, but that has had to come to an end. Berlin started by imposing temporary, time-limited controls. It said it would look in great detail at those seeking asylum in order to decide if they should be Germany’s responsibility at all. The government rejected a proposal by the opposition conservatives to reject all asylum seekers automatically at the borders, which would in any case contravene EU laws. Many of the would-be asylum seekers are from Gaza, where 90% of the population are seeking shelter in community buildings such as schools or home-made shelters. It’s hardly surprising that they think things could be better in Europe, no matter what Orban may believe. It’s probably safe to assume that people wouldn’t necessarily be better off in Putin-loving Hungary, although I liked Hungary when my work took me there briefly. Germany’s control of what is officially still the Schengen Zone is supposed to last for six months, but it may have to be extended. Migration remains a big election issue in Germany and the matter is bound to affect the outcome of the next elections. According to polls, migration remains the biggest issue for residents in the eastern German state of Brandenburg, and it’s a growing issue elsewhere, which shows that few people read the financial news. Germany’s anti-immigration far-right political party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), recently became the first far-right party since the Second World War to win a state election.
Asylum seekers have been blamed for a spate of knife attacks around the country, although it was the Islamic State group that claimed responsibility for them. In Germany, of course, they, too, are technically asylum seekers. Having taken the trouble to read the Koran, I can only assume that members of Islamic State have not, nor ever will, or they wouldn’t act in the way they do. Meanwhile, travellers to Germany can expect more checks of their passports and travel documents, at least for the moment.
| PLAYING POLITICS
Anyone thinking the new regulations are the result of fears about more asylum seekers turning up would be wrong. It’s really a bid to put barriers in the way of far-right political groups keen to capitalise on a rise in immigrant numbers seeking asylum and a concomitant upsurge in violence to justify their political beliefs. There is no shortage of places where people face daily danger. Some streets in London can be pretty unpleasant. This has led to dismay among some of Germany’s neighbours, who fear that having been turned away at the German border, they may try to gain entry to their country instead. It seems quite likely, in fact; desperate people will always seek refuge somewhere. Germany needed the agreement of the European Commission, of course, to change its access rules, because its plans will affect freedom of movement within the Schengen Zone, albeit only for an initial six months, but that may be extended. Germany had already begun to become increasingly strict about its asylum rules, detaining asylum seekers while German authorities determine if Germany is even responsible for processing their applications, although it rejected the demands of the far right that all asylum seekers should be automatically rejected at the border. Such a move would, in any case, break EU law. However, polls in Germany suggest that migration is the top issue for many, which makes controlling it a priority for any political party, especially if it is in office.
Some asylum seekers have unintentionally provided propaganda in favour of tighter controls by violence and public knife fights. In recent incidents, the attackers were known to have been asylum seekers. The fact that the attackers had clearly failed to appreciate how such actions might affect their requests for asylum suggests exceptional stupidity on the attackers’ part. One thing they have achieved is a general tightening of security procedures at all Germany’s borders, with more random checks being carried out on cars, buses and trains, which will inevitably cause delays.
In Britain, the leader of the former UK Independence Party, UKIP, the party that was dedicated to taking the UK out of the EU, Nigel Farage, was on a propaganda tour of south-east England and turned up in the seaside town of Margate. In the end, of course, despite massive opposition, his policies triumphed, and Britain left the EU, doing massive economic damage to itself in the process. But getting back to that Margate incident, Farage’s minions tried to set up photo opportunities to prove his popularity. At one shop selling art and artists’ supplies, his assistant requested access and a photo of him shaking hands with the shop keeper, but the shop assistant he approached gently, politely, but firmly denied him access. The UKIP worker was apparently shocked and clearly couldn’t understand why Farage wouldn’t be welcomed. He was even more shocked when he was told that he too was unwelcome, and he was unceremoniously ordered to leave. Farage and his supporters may have been “carefully taught”, but not everyone agrees with racism, whatever the colour or politics of the victim or practitioner. I was not present for this little encounter in a shop, but I know the shop assistant very well and how much she was opposed to both racism and Brexit (and Farage, of course!). Good for her: her courage was admirable! The far right, it seems, can never understand why anyone might disagree with them, and are inclined to develop conspiracy theories when they do.
| THE COLOURS OF HATE
Naturally, of course, Germany’s tightening of the asylum rules will have a wider effect, with anyone deemed to be trying to enter the country illegally facing detention somewhere close to the border while their applications are examined. Not all are rejected, of course. Taking responsibility for new citizens involves cost, so the far-right are doing quite well, especially around Brandenburg in what used to be East Germany. Better, in fact, than any far-right party has done there since the defeat of the Nazis and according to some polls, better than the governing slightly left-leaning coalition party in charge. Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has called for urgent talks with other countries likely to be affected by Germany’s action. He wants to talk about the issue in some detail before deciding what to do next. According to the UNHCR, Germany reported it had attracted almost 1.24-million refugees and 233,000 asylum seekers by the middle of 2021, which makes it the biggest host country for refugees in Europe, half of the incomers having arrived from Syria. Under EU asylum law, arrivals must apply for asylum in the part of Europe in which they first arrived. Germany currently attracts the fifth largest number of refugees in the world; it’s a popular destination. We can speculate as to the cause until the cows come home but even if we can agree a reason, it doesn’t end the resulting crisis. According to the European Agency for Asylum, In the first half of 2024, the EU and its near neighbours received more than half a million applications for asylum (513,000). This is a stable figure when compared with the same period of the previous year, which itself was the highest figure since the 2015–2016 refugee crisis.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg met with Chancellor Scholz in Berlin in April 2024 and thanked him for Germany’s leading rôle in NATO and the support it has shown to Ukraine. “Germany makes major contributions to our shared security,” said Mr Stoltenberg. For the first time since the early 1990s, German spending on NATO reached 2% of the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Germany has good reasons for helping Ukraine when it can. Relatively wealthy countries provide an irresistible attraction for those seeking new lives far from conflict and starvation. Germany’s new controls are being brought into force as it witnesses a welcome drop in asylum applications, which the country’s Interior Minister, Nancy Faeser, attributes to the new controls brought in last year. It’s been claimed that this prevented more than 300,000 unauthorised entries.
Altogether, the EU received more than 1.14-million applications for asylum in 2023, which is the highest number since the migrant crisis of 2016, according to the European Union Agency for Asylum (EUAA). Even so, application numbers have fallen recently and in May 2024 were down by a third compared with last autumn’s peak, although Germany continued to receive the greatest proportion: 22% of the total. Strangely, perhaps, Ireland received the greatest number per head of population, but of course it is a beautiful and inoffensive country with a largely friendly population and no internationalist ambitions. Oh, and also good beer and whiskey.
However, Olaf Scholz has expressed his determination to go ahead with his planned border controls, despite opposition from Germany’s near neighbours, because he says they are “necessary”. Germany has had checks in place at its borders with Czechia (more commonly known as the Czech Republic), Poland, Austria and Switzerland, having obtained official agreement for this break with the rules governing the EU’s official “border free” travel area, while temporary restrictions have also been introduced at the borders with France and the Netherlands.
This was mainly done to curb a rise in cross-border crime. Scholz is taking a pragmatic approach to asylum following a decision by political rivals the CDU/CSU to walk away from talks about migration issues. The CDU/CSU wanted all irregular applicants for asylum to be simply turned back at the frontier, although that would have breached EU Law. Scholz reminded his parliament that “the power of the Federal Republic of Germany ends at (its) border”.
Some Germans are in favour of migration and have demonstrated with placards upon which are written such slogans as “Open Hearts, Open Minds, Open Borders.” Admirable sentiments but not widely shared, of course. An influx of asylum seekers fleeing conflict in the Middle East has boosted support for Germany’s far-right and very conservative parties, especially as a small number of the incomers have resorted to violence to settle their personal disputes. They do no favours to their fellow countrymen that way. Many ordinary citizens, however theoretically liberal, believe the government should have acted earlier to curb the influx of unwelcome foreigners.
Meanwhile, Scholz is facing problems with his coalition partners and his own unpopularity. The group lost heavily in June’s European Parliament elections, with support for the Green Party, one of the partners, down by almost half, while Scholz’s Social Democrats had their worst result in a national vote for more than a century. National elections are not due until 2025, but rows among the partner parties cause some to doubt the government will last that long. The AfD, of course, seems to be polling strongly. Having three member parties – the Social Democrats, Greens and Free Democrats – makes the alliance especially vulnerable and it shows.
| “CLOSE THE DOOR, THEY’RE COMING IN THE WINDOW”
Will Germany’s clamp-down ease the burden? Will it have any effect at all? Time will tell, but it does look suspiciously like an ill-thought-out and somewhat desperate second thought, intended as a stop-gap measure to solve a short-term problem which will do nothing to ease the economic crisis. If that’s the case, then it probably won’t work anyway. It’s certainly not a long-term solution. But in order to avoid fighting in the streets and what amounts to gang warfare, it may prove to be better than nothing. However, it has aroused concerns, with even the UK’s medical periodical, The world famous medical journal, Lancet, expressing concern. The article points out that the new provisions will allow for longer periods of detention and expanded opportunities for the authorities to search accommodation, however temporary, of the asylum seekers and their families. Civil society bodies have already expressed the opinion that the new law is inhumane and arguably unlawful, posing as it does a threat to asylum seekers’ rights, personal safety and access to health care. The new law also proscribes the period during which asylum seekers are entitled to treatment for health difficulties that pre-existed or have arisen from their homelessness. Yes, they’re entitled to treatment for acute pain, perinatal care and immunisations, but that legal entitlement is limited. The very uncertainty of the asylum seekers’ futures puts more mental stress on them and according to medical experts could affect their health in a variety of ways, causing depression, anxiety and possibly even coronary issues. The Lancet argues that all that uncertainty cannot help but lead to under-diagnoses of issues that could threaten life while greatly reducing the chances that those affected can integrate into society. It may even, perhaps, lead to a failure to diagnose treatable complaints. It may be a populist response but that doesn’t mean it’s also logical and sensible, and the United Nations has called on Germany to think again about what it is doing.
Partly, of course, what it is doing is acting as a sop to Scholz’s right-wing enemies and critics. It has also caused massive traffic jams at the German border, with cars redirected into waiting zones while the drivers’ and passengers’ papers are checked. Even though most of them were stopped fairly briefly it was described by some witnesses as “more theatrical than effective”, and it clearly isn’t enough to satisfy the far-right. The AfD party would prefer simply to turn all asylum seekers away. It also failed to satisfy Friedrich Merz of the centre-right CDU, who is making immigration a major electoral issue. The old expression “clutching at straws” springs to mind. It has, however, proved a nightmare for those living near the border whose jobs require them to cross it several times each day. Furthermore, many still see Scholz’s leftist government as being too weak on immigration, while shopkeepers on the Polish side of the frontier, for instance, say the inevitable long delays are seriously hampering trade, which will, of course, cause further economic hardship. Arguably, what the world needs is a great big melting pot, as the old pop song goes, “big enough for the world and all it’s got”. Sadly, we don’t have one and it probably wouldn’t work anyway. Maybe we could all just learn to live together in peace and harmony? It’s a nice idea but as you know and I know, that’s simply not possible. It seems the self-preservation part of human evolution ensured we go on fighting each other until the world ends. If anyone ever comes up with a solution that works, they’ll deserve more than a mere Nobel Prize. They’ll deserve (but certainly won’t get) the eternal gratitude of the entire world. German children may be kinder, but their grown-up relatives may not be.
