© Ministry of Defense of Ukraine

How to judge the issues causing the greatest tension in Europe? Well, first of all we would have to decide exactly what things are causing most tension. That would have to include the war in Ukraine, of course, upon which several differing views are often expressed, sometimes quite fiercely. Russia’s position is often criticised, but it is not without its supporters, even within the European Union. The big question on which there are several varying opinions concerns how the EU’s concept of national sovereignty clashes with that of Russia.

For the moment, let’s take Estonian Centre Party MEP Jaak Madison, back in early January 2024, who said: “Estonia’s rationale remains clear: Russia is a clear and present security threat to us.” Well, there’s no ambivalence there. He went on: “Historically, Russia has been an empire only when this included Ukrainian territory, and the loss of these areas to Russia would thus equate to the rebirth of that empire, and which in turn would intensify the risk of war in Estonia.” Nobody sensible would want that, of course (except, maybe, Vladimir Putin?). But the outcome in Ukraine is by no means the only issue to occupy the thoughts of members of the European Parliament. There is concern, too, about other countries seeking to interfere politically but on – for instance – religious grounds. It was Geadis Geadi, a member of the European Conservative and Reformist Group, who has expressed his concern on behalf of his own homeland: “Unfortunately, a Member State of the European Union, Cyprus, is the victim of foreign interference and hybrid warfare waged against it by Turkey,” he told the House during a debate, “on the one hand in violation of international law, sending settlers to illegally Turkish-occupied Cyprus, while on the other hand sending illegal immigrants daily by sea and occupied territories.

The goal is the demographic alteration of the island and the transformation entirely into an Islamic state leading to its strategic goal, the complete occupation of Cyprus.” It goes without saying that Turkey denies such an extreme ambition, even if its actions would seem to lend weight to such an idea.

Certainly, Geadis Geadi is sure: “I must denounce actions that unfortunately undermine European values, such as your presence at the conference of the Turkish-born states on the side of the leader of the occupation in Cyprus Ersin Tatar.” He went on to explain his viewpoint: “Patriotism is the defence of European nations and international law, not illegal separatist regimes. To prioritise national, not economic interests. To support countries such as Cyprus, which is the victim of a barbaric invasion and the victim of illegal occupation, colonization and dozens of other war crimes.” We clearly live in uncertain times, just as we have dome since civilisation first began, to be perfectly frank.

| RUSSIA, RIGHT OR WRONG?

Uncertainty over how to respond to President Putin’s territorial ambitions has been a hallmark of Europe’s response to the invasion. For her part, Marion Maréchal, an independent member of the French Assemblée National but formerly representing the far right-wing Rassemblement National (RN), has been criticised for “defending” Russia’s invasion by opposing the imposition of sanctions, which she denies. She says she only opposed the use of sanctions with regard to the supply of energy to Europe, although the RN also considers the training of Ukrainian soldiers is “a belligerent act”. She decided to form her own political party, Identité-Libertés, to be part of a new right-wing bloc and to “contribute to the victory of the national camp”, as she told the French newspaper Le Figaro.

She also explained that: “My objective is to work at a coalition alongside Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella and Eric Ciotti,” with the aim of assisting in securing a Le Pen presidency in 2027. Maréchal is Marine Le Pen’s niece, after all, so that keeps it in the family.

In France, the issue has led to a lot of bitter if unimpressive squabbling among largely like-minded politicians, most of them right-wingers but disagreeing on points of detail. Jordan Bardella, the RN’s acting president, for instance, blames the energy crisis, which understandably worries French citizens, on Europe’s help for Ukraine. Marine Le Pen has condemned what she called: “dangerous war-mongering attitudes”.

Meanwhile, Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, has claimed that if the Ukrainian government should fall it would mean that the EU would be at war with Russia. On very many levels this is demonstrably untrue, but Russia has not been on good terms with accuracy or truth for a very long time.

As for Lavrov, was he thinking about how best to address the intense poverty of , for instance, Tolyatti, in Russia, home of the Lada car as well as massive unemployment, where 720,000 residents are said to be “critically poor,” or at best on very low incomes.

Or could he be thinking about a possible dinner at White Rabbit, Moscow’s plushest and most expensive new restaurant.? Was it named after the character in Lewis Carroll’s Alice Through the Looking Glass (sequel to Alice in Wonderland) or to the song written by Grace Slick and recorded by the psychedelic rock band Jefferson Airplane in 1967?

It’s not something you think about while munching something very expensive, such as grey shushi with black chanterelles and oxtails or sturgeon caviar, while drinking Sovetskoye Shampanskoye, Russia’s best sparkling wine, said to equal champagne for flavour. It would seem Lavrov just wants to dissuade European leaders from siding with Ukraine and against Russia’s unprovoked invasion. Certainly, Russia’s ambitions lacked that welcome sense of adventure demonstrated during its careful expansion in the 1930s, when it was motivated by the aim of “building Socialism”. It’s not clear exactly what it’s striving to build now, except a larger fiefdom for Tsar Putin. Another glass of Sovetskoye Shampanskoye, former-comrade?

On the more domestic front, Marion Maréchal is concentrating her fire on immigration. She’s not alone in that. She is especially interested in ‘anticipating the socio-economic consequences of the large increase in world population’, and especially what she has called the ‘demographic imbalance’ between Europe and the rest of the world. She believes the flow of incoming migrants is at an early stage and will grow incessantly (as, indeed, will the world population). She told The Spectator magazine that immigration has barely started and that over the next three decades, the overall global population will swell by some two billion people, mostly in India, China and Africa, while Europe’s population remains unchanged (apart from the new arrivals, of course). That means, she says, that vast numbers of people will seek a new life in Europe. This, she argues, will require effort on Europe’s part to halt the flow and to feed those who have already arrived. “To stop them coming”, she has said, is “the only way to defend Europe’s independence, prosperity and freedom”. It is an unremittingly bleak prediction, with a relatively unpalatable solution being suggested. Her speeches in the House, however, suggest a very intense interest in keeping foreigners at bay. In a speech she gave in Strasbourg, she informed her fellow-MEPs that “70% of rapes committed in the streets of Paris and 60% of sexual assaults on public transport in the Paris region were by foreigners,” adding that: “the lax immigration policy brings foreign predators to our countries.” After all, foreign predators are unnecessary: Europe produces a great many of its own.

| FAITH AND FIGHTING

For many European politicians who are considered “right wing”, either mildly or extremely, the issues in Russia and Ukraine are not at the top of the list of priorities anyway. When asked, they, like Marion Maréchal, are most likely to cite immigration as their greatest concern, with a side order of fears over religious extremism. The world is polarising between the “haves” and the “determined to gets”, with most of us caught up somewhere in the middle. There is, however, a general agreement, it seems, that the EU should be doing more to assuage their concerns. For instance, take the views of Arkdiusz Mularczyk of Poland’s Law and Justice Party: “In the face of the war in Ukraine and Russian attempts to circumvent sanctions using a shadow fleet,” he warned, “I appeal on my own behalf and also on behalf of my country, Poland, for decisive action by the EU in cooperation with NATO.” There may also be a role for NATO in addressing the concerns of Cristian Terhes of the Romanian National Conservative Party, who is also a consecrated priest of the Romanian Greek Catholic Church in Oradia, the Capital city of Bihor County, Transylvania, in western Romania. Like many others, he is angry with Russia’s adventurism. “Through specific Soviet means,” he said in a speech to fellow MEPs, “such as disinformation, manipulation, active measures and other means specific to hybrid warfare, the Kremlin wants to keep the Republic of Moldova in its sphere of influence.” Terhes has strong words of advice to Europe: “It is imperative to give clear signals to the citizens of the Republic of Moldova that we are on their side.” It’s a well-known fact, of course, that Vladimir Putin often fails to understand Western reactions to his aggression. We in the West repeatedly get him wrong, just as he fails to comprehend democracy and our place within it. He still appears to believe that simple bullying will help him to achieve his ends, and he seems genuinely puzzled when it doesn’t work.

“Finland knows very well what Russia’s hybrid influence is,” said Sebastian Tynkkynen of the centre-right Finns Party. “When Russia sent hordes of instrumented migrants (his words, according to an on-line translation) to our borders, Finland did not hesitate to act.” He continued: “The Finnish parliament passed a law with a large parliamentary majority to combat this kind of influence. Now Russia’s other neighbour, EU country Poland, is also taking the same step. This means we have a threat of hybrid influence that affects the EU countries extensively, from which the countries want to protect themselves.

Now, the big question is: what does the EU do and does it give such a procedure its full support? Or are we really so stupid in the EU that every single migrant pushed to their borders by Russia and Belarus should be welcomed with open arms?” It’s a question to which few think they have a definitive answer, but Tynkkynen has no hesitation in giving his verdict: “We must not fall for this under any circumstances. There is a point to be made for Russia’s influence and the EU must show its support for the legislation that countries use to protect their borders. Every country has the right to this.” That is not a point that Putin appears to understand, however obvious it may seem.

Tynkkynen also reminds us that there are problems potentially affecting Europe, though occurring far away. “China is threatening its neighbours in the South China Sea,” he points out, adding that: “Europe seems to be completely incapable of breaking away from China. Are we really so clumsy (complacent?) towards the East that we continue a permissive trade policy that makes us dependant on China, while oppressing the Uighurs, blockading Taiwan and attacking Filipino fishing boats?” Clearly, none of that is Europe’s intention, but our lack of perception makes it possible.

“China takes advantage of the conflicts raging in the world,” says Tynkkynen, “imagining that we have forgotten the threat it poses. China cannot be pressured if it is not isolated in the world political arena. That is why Europe should say as clearly as possible (that) we have not forgotten, and we will also act accordingly.” That sounds rather like fighting talk, although it’s hard to imagine a war between Finland and China.

| ANY MORE FIREWORKS?

It goes without saying that there are disputes a-plenty about the various rival sets of beliefs. People get so unreasonably and unthinkingly angry about such differences that one might be tempted to belief that the argument is of greater importance than the faith itself, whatever that might be. It’s not so much a question “like “do you believe in God?” as “how exactly do you believe in God?

And which God is that?” “Left-wing radicals are, of course, providing support with EU funds that have been ‘deported’ (according to the on-line translation) to Hamas in Palestine”, said Jaak Madison of the Estonian Central Party. “This money has been used to support the Islamic terrorists, to kill Jews and destroy peace there,” Madison said in a speech at the European Parliament. “We know the facts, that Hamas is working together with Hezbollah in Lebanon, with Russia, with Iran and North Korea. That is the side of evil.” It’s true: religion and politics have become indissolubly and strangely intertwined. Does Putin believe in a religion? If so, which one? Who knows? Who cares? It makes little or no difference; religious folks may boast about love and peace but it doesn’t seem to reduce the pressure of their fingers on the triggers or missile launch buttons that have nothing whatever to do with mutual love or respect and everything to do with sudden violent death. In that way, Madison is quite justified in saying “We are standing on the good side to destroy the terrorists and to finally fight for peace”. An admirable sentiment, but I fear there is nothing “final” about it (except for the victim, I suppose) nor will there ever be.

Violent rows and even wars about who loves their God most, which God deserves that love and how it can overcome all competition, not necessarily in a peaceful way, will probably continue into eternity. It is the fate of humankind to find excuses – even religious excuses – to commit slaughter on a massive scale. It will be reflected in the endless conflicts and acts of violence that fill our newspapers day after day, with supposedly “holy men” excusing it all as just a part of showing how much they love their god. We’re a strange lot, we humans, but always inclined towards violence if we can find an excuse for it, God help us.

Jim.Gibbons@europe-diplomatic.eu