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The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has been marked by an extraordinary integration of drone technology, with the deployment of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) reaching levels never before seen in modern warfare.

The skies above the battlefields have been abuzz with thousands of these drones, their silhouettes stark against the grey expanse, as they diligently carry out a myriad of tasks.

These mechanised sentinels have been instrumental in monitoring the ebb and flow of enemy movements, their unblinking electronic eyes providing a constant vigil. They have served as invisible conduits, guiding the deadly ballet of artillery fire with an accuracy that is as chilling as it is awe-inspiring. Furthermore, these drones have been utilised to execute precision strikes on targets, their payloads delivered with a cold, calculated efficiency that is a hallmark of this new age of warfare.

This cutting-edge technology is not merely augmenting military capabilities; it is fundamentally transforming the very landscape of war. Tactics and strategies that were once the stuff of science fiction are now being employed with devastating effect. The battlefield has evolved into a complex, interconnected web of sensors and shooters, where the hum of drones has become as ubiquitous as the thunder of artillery.

The prominence of drones in this conflict serves as a stark testament to their burgeoning significance on the battlefield. Yet, it also raises profound questions about the future of military engagement. As we venture further into this uncharted territory, we must grapple with the ethical implications of such advanced capabilities.

In essence, the conflict in Ukraine is not just a clash of arms; it is a window into the future of warfare, where technology and ethics intertwine in a complex dance, and the humble drone plays a starring role. The lessons we learn from this conflict will shape the battles of tomorrow, for better or for worse.

Drones have indeed metamorphosed the battlefield, introducing accessible and affordable capabilities on a scale hitherto unseen. These unmanned aerial vehicles have presented significant challenges to the concentration of forces, the element of surprise, and the execution of offensive operations. Whilst it is true that drones do not possess the survivability of crewed aircraft, they do allow for a greater acceptance of risk.

Moreover, the longevity of drones in combat is not necessarily a critical factor when they are both economical and abundant. In such cases, their resiliency can be bolstered through sheer numbers, a strategy similar to the Hydra of ancient myth, where heads of the serpent-like monsters regrow in the place of those severed. However, it is essential to note that the overall impact of drones has been more akin to an evolution than a revolution.

Drones, when integrated with ground-based firing units, have transformed common artillery shells into precision-guided weapons. Furthermore, so-called ‘kamikaze drones’ have demonstrated remarkable accuracy in striking mobile targets, rendering the frontlines even more deadly.

Nevertheless, it is crucial to understand that even a multitude of small drones cannot rival the raw power or volume of artillery fire., and thus, cannot serve as a substitute for the traditional howitzers that have long dominated the battlefield. Additionally, while drones offer an affordable form of air power, they have not supplanted traditional air forces, nor have they been able to secure air superiority.

In essence, the advent of drones has significantly altered the landscape of warfare, introducing new strategies and challenges. However, their role is not one of dominance, but rather of augmentation, complementing existing forces and tactics in this ever-evolving dance of military engagement.

| FACT AND FICTION ON THE BATTLEFIELD

Distinguishing fact from fiction during a war can be a formidable challenge, especially when both sides are actively engaged in information warfare, each striving to shape perceptions to their advantage. When considering the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, many immediately think of the much-hyped Turkish-built Bayraktar TB2 drone, which played a significant role in the early days and weeks of the war, helping to repel Russia’s initial assault.

However, contrary to expectations, medium-altitude, long-endurance drones like the TB2 or the Russian Orion have not been as influential in this war as initially believed.

Turkish propaganda was quick to portray the TB2 as a marvel of modern warfare, a weapon so advanced that it could evade even the most sophisticated air defences, all while being remarkably affordable. Yet, the reality on the ground painted a different picture.

Once Russia adjusted its rules of engagement and began to more aggressively deploy its surface-to-air missiles, most of the TB2s were swiftly shot down.

Consequently, these drones essentially vanished from the battlefield, their impact having diminished far more rapidly than initial reports might have suggested. This stark contrast between the propaganda and the actual events underscores the complexities and deceptions inherent in the information warfare that is part and parcel of modern conflicts.

In the context of the current conflict, the deployment of large, reusable military drones has been rather infrequent. However, both Ukrainian and Russian ground forces have integrated smaller military and commercial or homemade drones extensively into their operations.

Military intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) drones, such as the Ukrainian Furia or Flyeye, and the Russian Orlan-10 or ZALA 421 variant, possess advanced capabilities and are significantly more costly than their commercial equivalents.

As a result, these sophisticated drones are typically operated by larger military units, such as battalions. This ensures that their advanced features can be fully utilised and that their deployment is strategically coordinated to maximise their impact on the battlefield.

In contrast, commercial or homemade drones, while possessing fewer advanced features, have proven to be highly effective and versatile tools in the hands of smaller units or even individual soldiers. Their accessibility and ease of use have made them indispensable for a wide range of tasks, from reconnaissance to target designation, demonstrating that even less sophisticated technology can play a crucial role in modern warfare.

A very clear example was provided when a large Russian arms depot was destroyed by a huge explosion near Tikhoretsk in Russia, on 20 September. Ukraine said munitions from North Korea had been among those it was targeting, and the governor of the Krasnodar region confirmed Ukrainian drones were involved in the attack.

He said debris from a drone had sparked a fire, which “spread to explosive objects” and caused detonations. Residents nearby had been evacuated, and nobody was reported injured.

AI IN THE SERVICE OF UKRAINE

In a groundbreaking development, Ukrainian innovators have verified that their drones are now executing autonomous strikes against Russian forces, eliminating the need for a human operator at the controls. This marks a significant milestone, as it is the first confirmed use of such autonomous drones in combat. Previous allegations by the United Nations regarding autonomous attacks in Libya in 2020 remain unsubstantiated.

The Saker Scout drones are equipped with advanced capabilities that enable them to independently locate, identify, and engage a wide array of Russian military targets, with a repertoire comprising 64 different types of ‘military objects’. Remarkably, these drones can operate effectively even in areas where radio jamming disrupts communication, rendering other drones inoperable.

The Saker Scout, a quadcopter that entered service in October 2023, boasts an impressive payload capacity of three kilograms and can deliver its ordnance to targets up to approximately 12 kilometres away.

The effectiveness of small, remotely controlled drones as bombers has already been demonstrated, as they have been successfully modified to carry RKG-3 anti-tank grenades or RPG warheads, capable of destroying even heavily armoured tanks. This technological advancement underscores the evolving nature of modern warfare, where autonomous systems are increasingly playing a pivotal role.

A novel enterprise has recently emerged from its stealth phase, dedicated to the manufacture of kamikaze drones for Ukraine. ‘One Way Aerospace’, a company whose moniker is derived from the Pentagon’s term ‘one way attack drones’ is an innovative venture helmed by a distinguished team of founders, including an undisclosed British Royal Air Force veteran, James Earl, alongside Francisco Serra-Martins, a former Australian combat engineer and an investor recognised in Forbes’ prestigious ‘30 under 30 list’. Rounding out the leadership is Roman Antonov, previously the Chief Technology Officer of Doroni and an engineer hailing from Ukraine’s renowned Antonov Design Bureau.

One Way Aerospace’s flagship product, the Scalpel attack drone, has already demonstrated its formidable capabilities in active combat scenarios. Impressed by its proven performance, the company is now accelerating its production efforts to meet the growing demand. This scale-up in manufacturing underscores the urgent need for such advanced technologies on the modern battlefield and highlights the company’s commitment to delivering cutting-edge solutions to support Ukraine’s defence efforts.

FOREIGN ALLIES STEPPING UP AID

On 7 March ths year, Britain significantly bolstered its support for Ukraine by announcing a comprehensive aid package valued at £325 million.

This substantial investment is set to provide more than 10,000 advanced drones to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This initiative will leverage the United Kingdom’s world-renowned defence industries to deliver state-of-the-art drone capabilities to Ukraine throughout the year 2024.

But besides Britain, many other allies have supplied drones to support Ukraine’s defence, including, of course, the United States as well as Poland, and several Baltic and European nations. This collective effort has significantly enhanced Ukraine’s military capabilities and demonstrated the international community’s commitment to its sovereignty.

Anticipating this, the Russians are trying to solve their air-defence problem without redeploying their best systems hundreds of miles from the front line.

According to Russian state media, the Kremlin is forming its own mobile air-defence groups. The problem, for the Russians, is scale. Russian air-defenders must protect many more targets than Ukrainian air-defenders protect. And since Russia is much bigger than Ukraine is, it’s harder for the mobile groups to anticipate which direction a Ukrainian drone might come from.

Russian forces seem to encounter difficulties in effectively positioning short-range air-defence systems along the anticipated flight paths of Ukrainian drones. Moreover, the Russian military appears to have neglected to safeguard crucial potential targets even in supposedly well-fortified areas within Russia, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). The extensive deployment of mobile fire groups across western Russia could present similar obstacles for Russian forces.

In the most favourable outcome for Ukraine, its drone strikes would persist in targeting Russian oil refineries while also compelling Russia to disperse its air defences. However, even if Russia succeeds in shielding its refineries, it is likely to do so at the cost of adequately protecting its front-line troops.