The Chagos Archipelago © Astronaut Photography of Earth

The Chagos Archipelago, a remote cluster of fifty eight islands nestled in the heart of the Indian Ocean, may seem like an isolated paradise wit its azure waters and coral reefs, but its history is deeply intertwined with the geopolitical machinations of the 20th century.

The archipelago became the site of profound human suffering as their indigenous inhabitants were forcibly removed to make way for a strategic military airbase on Diego Garcia, its largest island and a vital asset in the ongoing Cold War.

The plight of the Chagossians, caught in the crossfire of British and American interests, serves as a poignant reminder of the human cost of geopolitical transactions, echoing through the corridors of power far from the shores of their homeland.

In a significant recent development, the United Kingdom has announced plans to cede the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius, a decision that carries profound implications for both the local populace and the broader geopolitical landscape. As nations grapple with the rising influence of China and the evolving dynamics of international relations under the new Trump administration, the future of the Chagos Archipelago sits at a precarious intersection of human rights and strategic interests.

The Chagos Islands were discovered by European explorers in the 16th century. Initially uninhabited, the islands were settled by enslaved Africans and labourers brought by the French, who controlled the region in the 18th century, as a dependency of Mauritius.

Later, the British took over the islands during the Napoleonic Wars and used them primarily for plantations, especially for coconut production.

The British used the archipelago as a key military base during World War II. When they agreed to leave Mauritius in 1965, they excluded the Chagos Islands. This resulted in Mauritius gaining independence without the islands, which were then designated as a British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT)

| A LEGACY OF DISPLACEMENT

In 1966, at the height of the Cold War, the United Kingdom and the United States forged an important agreement, with the United States leasing the strategically-located island of Diego Garcia for a period of 50 years. This arrangement was not merely a matter of real estate; it came as part of a broader defence collaboration. In return for granting the US access to this vital area for the construction of a military base, the UK received a substantial financial concession: a discount of $14 million on its purchase of advanced nuclear-armed submarine-launched Polaris ballistic missile systems.

This deal underscored the deepening military ties between the two nations during the Cold War era and highlighted the importance of Diego Garcia as a key asset in global military strategy.

However, the British government forcibly removed around 2,000 Chagossians from their homes, a process marked by hardship and trauma. They were relocated, primarily to Mauritius and the Seychelles, where they faced significant challenges in their new lives.

This forced displacement has not merely been a personal tragedy for the Chagossians; it has also sparked extensive legal and political controversies that have persisted for decades.

The ramifications of their removal from their ancestral land has sparked an ongoing struggle for recognition and restitution that has reverberated through international courts and diplomatic discussions, highlighting the complexities of colonial legacies and the pursuit of justice for marginalised communities.

| CESSION TO MAURITIUS: A TURNING POINT

Fast forward to recent years, and the international legal landscape surrounding the Chagos Archipelago has experienced a dramatic shift. A pivotal moment came in 2019 when the International Court of Justice (ICJ) issued a groundbreaking advisory opinion. This ruling declared that the United Kingdom’s ongoing administration of the islands constituted a violation of international law, shining a spotlight on the pressing need to confront the historical injustices that the Chagossians have endured for decades.

This watershed moment did not go unnoticed. In the wake of the ICJ’s opinion, the UK government took a significant step by announcing its intention to cede the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius. And in a momentous agreement unveiled on 3 October, British prime minister Keir Starmer and Pravind Jugnauth, the then-Mauritian prime minister, jointly proclaimed the restoration of full sovereignty over the Chagos Archipelago to the Republic of Mauritius. This historic accord, struck between the two nations, was predicated upon a series of guarantees that ensured the continued operational presence of a United States military base on the archipelago for a period of ninety-nine years.

The arrangement represents a delicate balance of geopolitical interests, as it addresses both the longstanding territorial claims of Mauritius and the strategic needs of the United States, while also signaling a new chapter in international diplomacy and cooperation.

British Foreign Minister, David Lammy highlighted that the current administration had navigated a complex situation where the long-term, secure operation of the Diego Garcia military base was at risk, facing both contested sovereignty and ongoing legal challenges. He emphasised that the newly agreed-upon arrangement ensures the continued viability of this vital military asset for the future. According to Lammy, the agreement will bolster Britain’s role in safeguarding global security, effectively closing off any potential use of the Indian Ocean as a dangerous route for illegal migration to the UK. Furthermore, it solidifies the long-term relationship between the UK and Mauritius.

But this decision represents not just a legal maneuver; it is a profound turning point in the long and painful saga of the Chagossians. By transferring sovereignty, the UK is attempting to address the deep-seated grievances of those who were forcibly removed from their homeland, offering them a glimmer of hope for restitution and recognition. Moreover, this shift in governance has far-reaching implications for the strategic dynamics of the region, as it reshapes the geopolitical landscape and invites new discussions about the future of these islands and their people.

| STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

The strategic implications of this cession are most significant ,particularly in the context of rising tensions with China. The Indian Ocean, a vast expanse of water that connects continents and cultures, has long been a strategic crossroads of global trade and power. Its waters carry over a third of the world’s bulk cargo and two-thirds of its oil, making it a vital artery for the global economy. Thirty-three nations, home to a staggering 2.9 billion people, border its shores, each with their own unique history, culture, and aspirations. Due to its strategic importance, the Indian Ocean has become a key focus of US foreign policy, and at the heart of this strategy lies the controversial island of Diego Garcia.

There are many advocates of the agreement between the UK and Mauritius to keep Diego Garcia out of the equation and leave it in place. However, this does not preclude Mauritius from leasing other Chagos islands to China or allowing Chinese military vessels to operate in the surrounding waters. What’s more, lease contracts can be broken. In this context, the UK’s 1967 agreement, which saw Mauritius sacrifice the islands in return for independence and financial aid, seems to have been forgotten.

It has been suggested that US President Joe Biden actually pressured the UK into ceding the Chagos Islands for fear that the US could lose control of the military base on Diego Garcia if Mauritius were successful in its application for a binding ruling at the International Court of Justice to take control of the islands.

| MARITIME DOMINANCE

The world has been witnessing what has been called China’s “Port Conquest”.

China has invested in over 100 ports across 63 countries, cementing its status as a major player in the global maritime trade. The strategy appears to be aimed at bolstering China’s global influence in key maritime locations without the need for deploying soldiers, ships, or weapons. This subtle approach to power projection is noteworthy because it not only enhances the global trade economy but also raises concerns about potential military objectives and national security implications for host countries and their allies.

China’s relentless pursuit of global trade dominance is evident in the colossal scale of its infrastructure projects. This rise to power began in 2013 when China eclipsed the United States as the world’s leading trading nation. China’s domestic maritime prowess is undeniable, with some of the world’s busiest and largest ports gracing its coastline, including Shanghai, Shenzhen, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Guangzhou, Hong Kong, Qingdao, Tianjin, and Dalian. However, China’s ambitions extend far beyond its shores. The Belt and Road Initiative’s 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is a testament to this ambition, aiming to connect China to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Europe via maritime routes. This ambitious project is reshaping global trade and geopolitical dynamics, cementing China’s position as a global maritime powerhouse.

The cession of the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius could be interpreted as a strategic counterbalance to China’s growing influence. With Mauritius positioned as a critical partner for both the U.S. and India, the archipelago could serve as a strategic asset in any efforts to contain Chinese expansionism. The U.S. may leverage its historical ties with Mauritius to foster closer military and economic cooperation, ensuring that the islands remain aligned with Western interests.

| DONALD TRUMP’S CHINA POLICY

Under President Trump’s first term in office, the U.S. adopted a more confrontational approach towards China, viewing its expansionist policies as a threat to U.S. national security and global stability. The administration’s suspicions regarding China were reflected in its military and diplomatic strategies, which sought to strengthen alliances in the Indo-Pacific region.

In this context, the cession of the Chagos Archipelago to Mauritius will probably be an opportunity for the U.S. to reinforce its presence in the Indian Ocean. The U.S. may put to use its historical ties with Mauritius to bolster its strategic partnerships, thereby ensuring that the archipelago remains aligned with Western interests rather than succumbing to Chinese influence.

However, it seems clear that the incoming Trump administration will face a landscape of U.S. – China relations that will be more complex and unpredictable than before.

A revival of the more nationalist and hawkish voices within Trump’s close circle could be anticipated; notable figures such as Marco Rubio, the new Secretary of State, and Mike Waltz, the next National Security Adviser, are both staunch hardliners, and view China as a significant and existential threat. Their perspectives will most probably shape the new administration’s approach. Referring to Pete Hegseth, his pick for the new Defence Secretary, Donald Trump described him as “tough, smart and a true believer in America First”.

However, it is crucial to recognise that influential business leaders, especially those with considerable investments in China, such as Elon Musk, will also play a pivotal role in the shaping of this dialogue. Their interests and insights could provide a counterbalance to the more hardline stances taken by political figures.

As was seen during Trump’s first term, the dynamics surrounding who interacts with him most frequently and who occupies his inner circle at critical moments will probably have a significant impact on policy decisions. The interplay between these nationalistic voices and the interests of powerful business leaders will create a complex landscape that could greatly influence future U.S. foreign policy in general, and vis-a-vis China in particular.

Scenarios can be envisioned where a significant diplomatic breakthrough—a major agreement on economic or security matters—to a severe downturn that could lead to a complete freeze in relations or even potential military conflict.

On the trade front, tariffs will probably be a constant factor. Donald Trump has indicated plans to impose tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports. These tariffs could serve as either a negotiating tactic or an attempt to inflict economic harm on China, especially during a time when Chinese exports are crucial for its growth. His advisors are likely to use these tariffs as a means to push for economic decoupling.

The response from Beijing will be crucial. Will China take a restrained approach and seek a compromise, or will it retaliate aggressively? Although a full-blown trade war would be detrimental to China’s already fragile economy, President Xi Jinping is a steadfast nationalist who has equipped himself with various tools to counter U.S. pressure. A trade conflict could escalate quickly, with catastrophic consequences not just for Washington and Beijing, but for the global economy as well.

When it comes to Taiwan, there are a number of alarming possibilities, given that the situation has gained global significance, especially after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, Trump has questioned Taiwan’s importance to U.S. interests and might view it as leverage in negotiations. Meanwhile, China probably sees Trump’s presidency as an opportunity to persuade the U.S. to abandon its support for Taiwan, provided the price is right.

On the other hand, many of Trump’s advisors are inclined to advocate for a strong pro-Taiwan stance. Trump might go along with this to enhance his bargaining position during trade discussions. Yet, either approach could provoke a crisis with Beijing, especially as Xi has instructed his military to remain prepared for conflict, and it is uncertain whether a Republican Congress would be able to rein in the U.S. president’s actions.

Regarding strategic competition, Donald Trump does not share the same ideological zeal as some of his advisors, who are calling for regime change. He is likely to allow them to pursue their agendas as long as it doesn’t interfere with his deal-making or tarnish his image.

This focus on competition could lead to a wave of new export controls targeting an increasing number of Chinese sectors. Under a second Trump administration, a more aggressive and costly set of technology restrictions could materialise, possibly leading to a significant decoupling from China.

Amid these varied possibilities, two outcomes seem certain. First, a deterioration in relations, potentially at an alarming rate. The underlying forces driving competition are intensifying and diversifying. The newly empowered Trump administration will likely be bold and unpredictable.

Second, China will probably seize this moment to present itself as a champion of globalisation and multilateralism, especially as Trump’s protectionist and isolationist policies may alienate certain countries. During Trump’s first term, China missed the chance to capitalise on global dissatisfaction with the U.S.; this time, it will probably not let that opportunity slip away.

| THE ROLE OF MAURITIUS

Mauritius has emerged as a crucial player in the current geopolitical landscape, thanks to its strategic location and its increasingly strong economic ties with powers from both the West and the East.

This island nation is uniquely positioned to serve as a vital partner in fostering stability in the Indian Ocean region. Its government’s dedication to democratic governance and respect for human rights resonates with Western values, making Mauritius an appealing ally for the United States and its partners.

Moreover, Mauritius has shown a keen interest in developing the Chagos Archipelago for purposes such as tourism and conservation. This initiative not only has the potential to revitalise the local economy but also aims to address the longstanding historical injustices experienced by the Chagossians, who were displaced from their homeland decades ago.

However, the prospect of military collaboration with the U.S. presents a complex and sometimes contentious dilemma for the Mauritian government.

As Mauritius navigates its evolving role on the global stage, it faces the challenge of balancing its relationship with China, which has made substantial investments in the region, against the expectations and demands of its traditional allies. This delicate balancing act will be crucial as the country seeks to assert its influence while ensuring its sovereignty and economic interests are protected.

| THE CHAGOSSIANS : A VOICE FOR JUSTICE

As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, it is essential that the plight of the Chagossians is not overlooked; their quest for justice and recognition is a vital part of the story surrounding the Chagos Archipelago. The recent cession of the archipelago to Mauritius does bring a glimmer of hope for the Chagossian people, who aspire to reclaim their homeland and have their rights acknowledged and respected.

| A COMPLEX AND FRAUGHT FUTURE

The cession of the Chagos Archipelago by Britain to Mauritius embodies a multifaceted interplay of historical injustice, geopolitical maneuvering, and the ongoing struggle for human rights. As the region navigates the implications of this transition, it is also important for the international community to ensure that the voices of the Chagossians are heard amidst the shifting tides of global power dynamics.

In this context, China’s strategy exemplifies the evolving nature of this global power dynamics. Dominance is no longer solely defined by military might; instead, it is increasingly articulated through narratives of development, commercial growth, and enhanced global connectivity. This approach allows China to project its power in a more nuanced, yet equally impactful, manner. China’s expanding investments in global ports and various commercial ventures create an impression of a peaceful ascent on the world stage. However, beneath this façade of economic development lies the potential for establishing military footholds. It is not merely the act of investment that raises concerns, but the looming threat of military-civil fusion and the dual-use nature of these developments that sparks apprehension.

As China embarks on its ‘Port Conquest,’ a crucial question emerges: are these investments purely commercial, or do they serve a broader military agenda? The answer to this question could significantly influence the future landscape of global security and the dynamics of world power. While fostering global connectivity and trade is vital, it is equally important to ensure that such cooperation does not undermine either national or global security. The international community must come together to assess these developments with a sense of caution and foresight, striving to maintain a balanced world order.

The strategic importance of the Chagos Archipelago in the context of U.S.-China relations cannot be overstated. As both powers compete for influence in the Indian Ocean, the archipelago finds itself at the centre of a new geopolitical reality. The outcomes of this transition will not only determine the future of the islands themselves but will also play a critical role in shaping the balance of power in a rapidly evolving global landscape.