The real issue here is climate change. Donald Trump doesn’t believe in it, but most climate scientists – or meteorologists – emphatically do. One of Trump’s comments is interesting and informative: “The concept of global warming was created by and for the Chinese in order to make US manufacturing non-competitive,” he said. He may believe that (although I personally doubt it) but his view of global warming seems to be that if some days are cold and there is snow falling or a chilly wind blowing then global warming can’t be happening. I find it hard to believe he’s really that naïve and simplistic but I’m not a psychologist and I suspect that raw ambition can push all other considerations out of the way. Trump himself has dismissed talk about climate change and global warming as “alarmist”, but if it is really happening, as most scientists and climate experts believe, then it’s rather more alarming than alarmist. It also seems that not even a majority of the members of his Republican party share Trump’s negative view. A poll conducted at Monmouth University, a private educational establishment in New Jersey, found that almost two thirds of Republicans now believe climate change is happening. That’s 15% more than was the case three years ago.

It’s in response to fears over global warming that the European Union set 2035 as the target date for an end to the manufacture of vehicles powered by internal combustion engines or in ways that generate pollution. It’s sticking to that deadline, too, despite opposition from several European manufacturers and the embarrassingly large numbers of unsold Chinese electric cars clogging up quaysides and docks, still waiting to be sold. The plan was that by holding the threat of a total ban over the carmakers’ heads, EU politicians would inspire or even lead a switch to electric power, despite objections from Europe’s own manufacturers. First, of course, is a call to stop making vehicles that require internal combustion engines at all. From 2035 onwards, it would be illegal to produce and sell new vehicles that emit carbon monoxide; a ban on those not using electric power would come later. It was to be called the “Fit for 55” package of measures, aiming to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gas by at least 55% compared with 1990 levels, with the ultimate ambition being to make the EU climate neutral by 2050.

But it hasn’t all gone exactly according to plan, although it was a very ambitious plan. So ambitious, in fact, that there had to be compromises to get the legislation passed, with Germany in particular pushing for loopholes, which in turn led to some manufacturers switching their plans from pure zero-emission full electric vehicles to a proportion of hybrid types capable of running on carbon-neutral fuels. It also meant a greater tax on imports of Chinese-made electric vehicles which in turn has led to a build-up of unsold Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). Millions of them. European manufacturers, however, have been scaling back their much-vaunted plans to increase the numbers of electrically-powered vehicles they make whilst reducing other types. At least fifteen famous makers have announced a delay in a planned switch to 100% electric-powered vehicle. They include Ford, General Motors, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Aston Martin, Toyota and Volvo (which is now Chinese-owned).

The whole issue certainly caught the public imagination, with a large proportion of the perceived pollution being blamed on emissions from various vehicles. So, changing to a non-polluting source of energy sounds like a great idea, but it’s actually very confusing, with a wide range of definitions about types and their possible emissions, and with different options attracting a different customer base. What, for instance, is a hybrid vehicle? And what is a “mild hybrid”? There is a bewildering number of types on offer, which inevitably leads to uncertainty and confusion. This may explain why they haven’t caught on quite as quickly as the manufacturers and politicians imagined and predicted, although they have certainly caught on quite a bit and their growth is progressing at an accelerating rate, meaning that they represent the future.

The strange thing is that some websites enthuse about how electric vehicles (EVs) are catching on fast, while others (albeit fewer) say they’re not. However, adapting factories to produce what is, in reality, a totally new product takes time and trouble, and that means it impacts on profits. The car makers seem to find the prospect of making hybrids more appealing than switching to all-out electric vehicles. The fact is that EVs are failing to attract Western buyers as much as expected.

The result has been an overall fall in demand. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers have been surging ahead, largely because their EVs are much cheaper. Their Western rivals are finding it impossible to compete. Another point against Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) is that makers can earn more from plug-in hybrids. BEVs lose them money. Yes, sales in the West are rising but at less than half the rate they are in China. Audi has announced a reduction in its EV goals, as have Porsche, Mercedes-Benz, Ford, Kia BMW and a number of others, although Audi has also talked about some “range extender” technology in the pipeline.

Let’s take a look at the various definitions, starting with “full hybrids”, sometimes called “self-charging hybrids”. In most cases this involves a petrol or diesel engine whose main function is to charge up the vehicle’s batteries, which are then used as the energy source for the motion of the vehicle itself. Another type of power train is a “mild-hybrid”, which can involve a small generator replacing the starter motor and alternator, along with a small battery. This system can boost the performance and improve the fuel economy, too. Fully electric versions, which generally cost more to buy, are nevertheless proving to be the most popular options, although their maximum ranges differ wildly, from a mere 160 kilometres to a more useful 644 kilometres. For all the perceived disadvantages, there is nothing that cannot be overcome with a bit of ingenuity and enough confidence that the future really will be electric. Even so, quite a lot of experts are already predicting that sales of electric vehicles will overtake those of petrol and diesel-powered types quite soon. General Motors originally predicted that all of its vehicles will be electric by 2035, but it has slightly toned down its enthusiasm in the light of experience. Ford said that every vehicle it sold in Europe will be electric as early as 2030, by which time Volkswagen has said that 70% of the vehicles it produces will be electric-powered. Even the mighty Jaguar, producer in days gone by of the much-envied E-type, (the car that many young men who were rich enough wanted to buy because they thought they would prove irresistible to young women; a “bird-puller”, in the jargon of the time). Certainly, sales of electric vehicles are climbing fairly rapidly, even if you, like me, have never driven one and the numbers arriving in showrooms are shrinking. The demand is unclear. In fact, manufacturers seem to have lost some of their early enthusiasm.

| KEEP IT CLEAN

Moving on, the range of available electrically-powered vehicles stretches to “plug-in hybrids”, which are seen as a kind of compromise between traditional vehicles, employing petrol or diesel power, and a full electric version. Plug-in hybrids vary in their ranges from just 32 kilometres to almost 100. They are also more expensive to buy when compared with a regular hybrid, although if they are charged regularly and fairly frequently they can cost less to run. Under normal conditions, it takes around three hours to fully charge an EV battery for a fully electric vehicle. The range, once such a battery is full, varies enormously, according to battery capacity, which is why drivers are advised to recharge their vehicles as often as conveniently possible. Nobody wants to be stuck in the middle of nowhere with a totally flat battery and no charging facilities in sight.

Fully electric vehicles are often quite an expensive option, although running costs are comparatively low. Perhaps that’s why more than one in six new cars is now electric, and as the charging infrastructure grows in its spread and availability, so the attraction of having an electric vehicle increases. Most of them are being made in China. The Japanese motor manufacturer Toyota has said that it intends to unveil a new car in 2027-2028 with a range of 1,000 kilometres with a battery that takes just ten minutes to charge, using liquid components instead of solids.

I have no idea how that could work and at the time of writing they’re not saying. However good they are, however, electric vehicles will never have the sexy roar and growl of six powerful cylinders or a V-8. My favourite driving experience of all time came some years ago when I took my wife to Strasbourg, and she arranged for us to visit the Alsace Motor Museum. Best of all, she arranged for me to drive seven laps of the museum’s circuit in a Chevrolet Corvette C1, which has been my dream car since childhood. It lived up to all my highest expectations and driving it was a real thrill.

Electric vehicles remain surrounded by a cloud of myths and misconceptions, even though the United States is aiming to have 50% of all its new vehicles powered by electricity by 2030. It’s an ambitious target. But will the West be able to generate enough electricity to meet what is sure to be increased demand? Throughout the West, research continues into “smart chargers” and regulations to ensure there will be sufficient power when needed. In the United States, “smart chargers” are called “Time of Use Rate Programmes”, to ensure that prices vary throughout the day, enabling power generators to select the cheapest to recharge your EV when there’s plenty of power available and preferably when it’s being generated by “green” means: offshore wind farms and other such clean and pollution-free means of generation. We mustn’t forget, either, that the switch to electric power is a gradual process, it’s not all happening overnight, and this allows the increasing use of renewable energy to happen gradually. More and more such facilities are under construction, despite opposition in some quarters. The UK, for instance, has seen an increase in campaigns to oppose the building of photovoltaic facilities through solar panels on farmland, but it’s unlikely to get very far: photovoltaic power is clean and comes for free (apart from the need for the infrastructure). Most people don’t seem to mind solar panels, either. In addition, there are biophotovoltaics (BPV), using microbial photo cells, which would arguably be the greenest route of all to the generation of electricity.

It’s an interesting concept that has been under development since the 1980s, and it relies on an organism called cyanobacterium mastigocladus laminosis, whose cells (remember: it’s a microbe, and therefore alive – after a fashion) happen to function as a photoconverter, turning light into energy of a different type, since light itself is a form of energy. In case you’re wondering why a microbe should generate electricity, it seems that light-dependent exoelectrogenesis is an evolutionary consequence of photosynthetic microorganisms, allowing them to adapt to “the changing intracellular environments with different redox status”, says Science Direct magazine. It also suits us power-hungry humans remarkably well. Having a bug in your system could, perhaps, be a good thing, as long as it’s the right type of bug, of course,.

In 2023, almost 14-million new electric cars were registered globally. By the end of that year, there were 40-million of them on our roads. By no means everyone realises how many of them there are, because they look so much like traditional cars. Registrations, however, seem to be concentrated in just a few markets, with little or no impact elsewhere. In 2023, for instance, just under 60% of new electric car registrations were in China, less than 25% in Europe and only 10% in the United States. That, added together, accounts for almost 95% of all electric car registrations around the world. In China’s case, the 8.1-million electric vehicles registered in 2023 represented a 35% increase over the previous year. But that 27.5% tariff has minimised China’s impact on EV sales in the United States and, if he wins, Trump has talked about raising the tariff to 60% on all Chinese goods sold in America, including electric cars (of course) but also freezers, washing machines and vacuum cleaners. Trump could even claim – with some justification – that it’s a punishment for China not meeting the trade levels agreed during his first presidential term, since China’s imports from the United States have fallen far short of the (unrealistic) targets that were set at that time.

BENTLEY has postponed its intentions to transition to a fully electric lineup by five years due to the insufficient adoption of battery-powered vehicles by consumers. Executives said that the British brand will transition to an entirely electrified lineup by 2035 rather than 2030. Bentley’s CEO, acknowledged a “lack of demand” for electric vehicles among the company’s current clientele, coinciding with a broader decline in EV sales across the sector this year.

| SALES INCREASE

China has continued to produce bargain electric vehicles which have sold well in many parts of the world, but a US tariff of 27.5% has kept them away, or at least reduced their impact there. The problem is that the manufacture of cars and other vehicles is a key sector of the American economy. There is quite a lot of support for retaining tariffs, too, out of patriotism. The situation has encouraged some American manufacturers to “bite the bullet” and produce cheap EVs. Buyers have admitted they’re not great, in the main, but they’re affordable, and that matters. China has huge stocks of BYD cars – a make with which I’m unfamiliar – waiting on the dockside to be shipped to wherever there is demand and only reasonable tariffs applied. In these globalist days, one cannot always tell a vehicle’s country of origin from its name, anyway. The Swedish company, Volvo, is now owned by a Chinese firm and hopes to sell Chinese-made EVs in the United States.

There are rumours of some sort of deal that makes the tariff reasonable and the vehicle prices more affordable, but nobody is admitting anything. The excellent news service NPR (it stands for National Public Radio and is based in Washington and Culver City, California), writes that a BYD Seagull, even after adaptation to meet US safety standards, would still be very cheap, although at present they’re banned from American streets. NPR claims, in fact, that if the off-the-shelf price was doubled and the 27.5% tariff added, it would still “undercut every EV for sale in the United States”. The future is electric, the future is affordable, even if Western manufacturers are scaling back their plans to build more EVs.

But is the future reliable? That’s an issue that must concern potential buyers, and the record suggests a degree of variability. Britain’s What Car magazine put a range of EVs to the test to see how they fared. You may not be surprised to learn that some of them, such as the Ford Mustang, the BMW iX3, the Tesla Y and the Skoda Enyak iV were among those at the top end of the reliability table. Indeed, the Mustang’s drivers reported no problems at all at any time. At the other end of the scale, some EVs proved a little less reliable, including the Vauxhall Mokka, the Jaguar I-Pace and the Audi Q8 e-tron, to name but a few, albeit surprisingly, and even there the problems proved small and easy to fix. They were, perhaps, teething problems. The plain fact is that they’re all cars and cars can (and do) go wrong.

As for today’s electric vehicles, their sales tend to be concentrated in three locations: China, Europe and the United States, but they’ve been somewhat more limited elsewhere. I pointed out earlier how many new electric cars were registered in China in 2023. In Europe that year, the percentage of new electric vehicles registered reached 25% and in the United States it was 10%. EVs fared less well in countries like Japan and India, which have well-developed car markets. EVs are sold in China free of tax, which has helped boost sales. Even so, 2023 was the first year in which China’s New Energy Vehicle (NEV) industry ran without financial support from national subsidies. What’s more, in that same year China exported more than four million vehicles, making it the largest auto exporter in the world. Of those exports, 1.2 million were EVs, but even many of those that have been exported remain unsold to an end-user. Overall, car exports were up by 65% over the previous year, while exports of electric vehicles were up by 80%. In the cautious United States, 2023 saw new electric car registrations rise to 1.4-million. Even Southeast Asia and Brazil are beginning to show more interest.

In Europe, new electric car registrations reached almost 3.2-million in 2023, an increase of almost 20% over the previous year. In the EU itself, sales reached close to 2.4-million, which suggests that EVs have certainly caught on in quite a big way. According to the British consumer magazine, Consumer Reports, owners of electric cars reported more problems with their vehicles than would have been the case if they’d chosen vehicles with internal combustion engines. The problem, as the magazine points out, is that most EVs are either built by established auto manufacturers with little or no experience of electrical power or by specialists in electrical power with little or no experience of building vehicles. Companies specialising in both are still a bit rare, although not, it seems, in China.

Still, sales of EVs are still rising, and it’s been estimated that they could reach something like 17-million by the end 2024, which would be more than one in five of all cars sold worldwide. Electric cars continue, meanwhile, to progress towards becoming a mass-market product in an ever-greater number of countries. Of course, the greatest numbers are sold in China itself, followed by Europe with the United State coming third. More than a quarter of a million electric cars were sold every week in 2023, even though sales numbers still only reached 10% of the numbers of cars with internal combustion engines that were sold. Whether or not we are truly witnessing a breakthrough in electric vehicle sales will depend upon how the sales pick up in emerging and developing economies, although the indications so far are very encouraging.

Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles (FAME II), is a scheme launched by the Government of India to give a boost to development of Electric Vehicles

However, in India, electric cars still have only a 2% share of sales, although Production Linked Incentives (PLIs) may change that in time. People love cars but they also love money, of course. Certainly, further growth is anticipated. Electric car sales are rising in such places as Brazil (3% share), Indonesia and Malaysia (2% share each), with sales (such as they are) underpinned by cheap models from Chinese brands.

It’s been estimated, perhaps a trifle optimistically, that by 2035, two thirds of all the cars sold will be electric. Even by 2030, it’s thought that one in three of the cars on China’s roads will be electric-powered, and one in five will also be in both the European Union and the United States. According to accountants J.P.Morgan, the rapid uptake of EVs of all types – cars, trucks, delivery vans, buses and even two- and three-wheelers will avoid the consumption (as fuel, of course) of 6-million barrels of oil per day (mb/d) and as much as 10-million by 2035. To put that figure into context, it’s equivalent to all the oil used for road transport in the United States today. Policy changes will further encourage this development, with new emission standards being adopted, for instance, in Canada, the European Union and the United States. This surge in sales and investment will certainly encourage further development of electric vehicles and ways to power them, if the makers can remain interested. Recent reports show that from 2022 to 2023, investments in EVs and in battery development have totalled almost $500-billion (€460-billion), with further growth expected. It sounds very exciting but can the manufacturers in the West retain their weakening enthusiasm? Even Tesla’s long-promised robotic “cybercab” taxi, which has no steering wheel, pedals, driver (of course) and only two seats has been put back a year, as it has on each of the last ten years. So the answer so far isn’t clear.

T.Kingsley.Brooks@europe-diplomatic.eu