The Finnish army protecting the border © maavoimat.fi

Jean Sibelius is famous for composing music in the romantic style that was, nevertheless, nationalistic in nature. His most famous composition is the tone poem Finlandia, written in 1899 and revised the following year, which was a form of protest in a musical form. Composed in support of press freedom, it drew attention to the way in which Tsarist Russia controlled what Finnish papers could say at the time. Before it became known as Finlandia, when it was still a part of the suite Sibelius called “Historic Scenes No.1”,it was known as “Finland Awakes”, under which brave title its opposition to control from Moscow was clearly apparent. However, as you know, history has a habit of repeating itself, and Finland’s huge neighbour to the East remains as hungry for more conquered territory as it ever was under the tsars. It was in the Finnish city of Tampere that Vladimir Lenin and Joseph Stalin first met. That was in 1905, when they began to plan the downfall of the Tsar and the end of the Russian empire. The story is illustrated at the Lenin Museum in Tampere which was hugely popular back in the days of the Soviet Union, although now that Tampere is in Finland and not the Soviet Union, the city authorities are a little embarrassed by its continued existence today.

In fact, the items on show have changed since Soviet Communism came to an end and Finland opted to join NATO, although it was the Bolshevik revolution of 1917 that gave Finland its independence. It had enjoyed more freedom than many other parts of the Tsarist empire – more, in fact, according to the writer Orlando Figes in his excellent history, “The Story of Russia”, than the Irish had under British rule in Ireland – because Russia had granted certain privileges originally granted when it was under Swedish control. Looking at the attitude towards Ukraine on the part of Vladimir Putin, it seems clear that he doesn’t share such magnanimity. In terms of modern governance, Russia has gone backwards, in fact.

As a result, of course, Finland is obliged to move forwards along a route that inevitably leads in a generally trans-Atlantic direction. The Finnish government has approved the Defence Cooperation Agreement (DCA) with the United States, following its unanimous approval by the Finnish Parliament. It will mean that there can be a US military presence in Finland, where defence materials can also be stored now, too. The DCA is as controversial in Finland as it was when Sweden signed up to it because of the fear that it could involve the deployment of nuclear weapons. However, Finnish MPs ensured that any nuclear weapons would be subject to Finnish laws and that their importation and transit would not be permitted on or through Finnish territory.

Moscow is upset with Finland, largely because Helsinki decided to close the country’s borders to Russians. Some observers have described this as part of some kind of game, like schoolboys bullying and bragging in a playground without actually coming to blows. Even so, Finland was able to apply for membership of NATO without arousing Moscow’s ire other than by being denounced, along with Sweden, for abandoning its long-standing neutrality. I think someone should, perhaps, point out to Putin that they may not have considered such a move if he had shown Russia to be less aggressive towards its neighbours. Despite this, Russia has stepped up its verbal attacks on Finland, although its reaction when Finland officially joined the NATO alliance in April 2023 was relatively muted.

Professor of Russian Studies Stefan Hedlund of Uppsala University explains in an article for Geopolitical Intelligence Services (GIS) that Russia is well aware of Finland’s ability to fight, having experienced it at first hand, but Finland still regards Swedish membership of NATO as vital. Facing potential hardship, we all need friends.

| IN TUNE BUT NOT IN HARMONY

Russia remains, however, determined to play the tough guy, just as the late US Senator John McCain predicted. Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, McCain warned that nothing provokes Putin more than weakness. Like that playground bully, if anyone stands up to him, he backs off. That doesn’t stop him from trying to influence events in other people’s countries, just as he has been attempting to get Sweden to look more kindly upon Moscow, hopefully (from Putin’s perspective) by persuading Sweden to remain outside an integrated defensive structure which could stand in the way of any future Russian expansionism. Swedish “weakness” (as Putin apparently sees it) has led to harsh Russian threats against Finland and to the rest of the Nordic region. Both Stockholm and Helsinki became more wary of Russia and more belligerent in their response following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. Finland has remained aware of the danger Russia poses, which is why it has retained conscription as well as stockpiling emergency supplies. When the Soviet Union collapsed, Finland, unlike its neighbours, did not downsize its military. Its leaders remembered Russia’s capabilities and past record of breaking its word and acting aggressively, responding with appropriate measures.

When Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, Finland increased its military spending and is said to have the most potent artillery capacity of any country in Europe. This would suggest that it was probably unwise of Russia to violate Finnish airspace in June 2024, however briefly, especially now that Finland has replaced its F/A-18 Hornet jet fighters with 64 brand new F-35s. That development certainly put out Putin, if Putin can ever be put out. Finland also boasts a very competent armaments industry. Moscow is well aware that the Finnish population have expressed a willingness to take up arms against any enemy that threatens it. And that means Russia, of course, or anyone else with territorial ambitions. And don’t forget that it can field a defence force of 280,000 troops, with a further 870,000 reservists. The message is: “Don’t mess with us!”.

Hedlund writes that during his 12 years in office, former Finnish President Sauli Niinisto had many meetings and conversations with Putin, which he described as “frank”. Finnish leaders don’t plead but nor do they engage in “sabre-rattling”, as the Russians do. The Finns were clearly uneasy, however, at the way that Sweden weakened its military capability after the Soviet Union collapsed, scrapping conscription and turning its military facilities to civilian use, even selling off its emergency stockpiles. Sweden’s current government is trying now to reverse some of those measures, having had Russia’s potential aggression amply demonstrated in Ukraine. But it will take a long time to be effective. Meanwhile, Western observers believe there is a real risk of Russian adventurism as it bids to recover territory lost when the Cold War ended. Putin is hard to predict, although Western observers believe his manipulation of the presidential system over the years has been designed to ensure that he can remain president for life. That may be his aim, but achieving it will be harder, even for him.

We must not forget that Putin’s military interests and objectives go beyond Europe’s borders, including Russia’s involvement in Syria. Putin still supports Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and has vetoed UN resolutions to block his participation in any settlement of the Syrian issue. Russia also has troops on the ground there in his support. It’s the first time Russian troops have been directly deployed in another part of the world since the end of the Cold War in 1991. Western and several Arab powers would like to exclude al-Assad from any final settlement in Syria, but Putin has invariably vetoed it. Russians tell jokes about Putin, especially concerning his fading mental faculties, likening him to Leonid Brezhnev, who was General Secretary of the Communist Party from 1964 until 1982, by which time it is believed he was virtually senile. After years of strength and successful management, the situation worsened and he ended up getting the USSR involved in the war in Afghanistan, simply to distract people from matters closer to home, rather as Putin is doing now in Ukraine. Putin’s vanity also draws comments, especially his lavish use of Botox, which has left him with a face that is virtually incapable of showing emotion. Even so, Russia (and Putin, of course) can boast of some success: Kurdish militias, which have US backing, have agreed an outline deal to end the hostilities in eastern Syria. The deal had been brokered by Russia. Of course, the event redounds on Russia to Putin’s advantage, making him look like a true global player and cementing Russia’s presence in a war theatre largely dominated by Washington.

| STAYING THE COURSE

Moscow has been engaged there for more than five years, its strategy being based on “spheres of influence”, it seems, which divides Syria into a number of distinct “realms” under the influence of conflicting powers, none of which seem to regard it as important. The outcome of all of this has been described by some Russian strategists as a “post-West” order, which is, of course, total nonsense. Putin may be Botoxed to the limits and beyond, but he won’t last forever, and then Moscow will have to look long and hard, possibly even towards Washington, before deciding what to do next. Still, Putin’s influence in Syria has been significant, with Russian airpower and Iranian-backed militias helping each other to save the al-Assad regime from collapse, mainly through sheer brutality. Syria, however, remains as unsettled and unpredictable as ever, despite Moscow’s desire to develop a settlement there that is favourable to Russia, despite the country’s chaotic defence and security operations together with international opposition to al-Assad. Syria’s end-game will probably be fixed by a Russia for whom a Kremlin victory matters more than the country concerned, whilst simultaneously undermining any powers that the Kremlin views as rivals.

Perhaps Putin ought to bear in mind an old Finnish saying: “Ei kysyvä tieltä eksy”, which means “who asks for the road doesn’t get lost”. In other words, he should, perhaps, seek advice from others in a better position to know the answer before he takes action. Putin, however, seems convinced that he’s always right; he cannot conceive otherwise.

In July 2024 – a little late, one might think – the Supreme Court of Russia’s Republic of Karelia ruled that during the Second Soviet-Finnish War between 1941 and 1944, Finland committed genocide against the people of the Soviet Union. According to the Helsinki Times, Jyri Lavikainen, who is a researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, told the newspaper, Helsingin Sanomat, that it’s clear Russia wants to portray Finland as an enemy for political purposes, even though it took some 90 years to get around to doing it.

Perhaps Putin and his followers should take note of another old Finnish saying: “Joka vanhoja muistelee, sitä tikulla silmään”, which means “a poke in the eye for the one who dwells on the past”. Grudges are easy things to hold but require a bit of courage to be disposed of. Perhaps it’s time Putin put the past behind him, rather than keeping it close at hand like some sort of attack dog, always available to use.

What perhaps makes Russia’s potential allies nervous is its seeming lack of sensible policies and processes. For instance, the former ballet dancer Ksenia Karelina has been convicted by a Russian court (what else?) of treason for donating €46 to a US charity that the court decided could be used to buy weapons and supplies for Ukraine. The court sentenced her to 12 years in a Russian prison, which seems a somewhat severe punishment for such a meagre donation. Russia has been a stranger to logic for many years. I wonder how much military hardware can be bought for €46? We should always remember the words of the US House Intelligence Committee chairman, Mike Rogers, who was in office during the Barack Obama presidency. As Mark Galeotti writes in his worrying but highly entertaining book, “We Need to Talk About Putin”, quoting Rogers, “Putin is playing chess, and I think we are playing marbles”. Galeotti asserts, however, that we in the West have a tendency to ascribe too many of the things that worry us to Putin’s machinations, simply because he makes us uneasy and afraid, so that when things occur that suit him, we think he must be the organising cause. It’s true: I’ve seen him blamed for the Brexit fiasco, race riots and far-right separatist politics, when he seems to have been happy to let things happen because it’s simply the way a lot of people think. Putin is not the all-powerful chess master, playing with human lives; he’s an opportunist who capitalises on the occasions when he strikes lucky.

| THE SKY’S THE LIMIT ? NO, IT ISN’T

Some of Putin’s threats, though, are just that and no more. His main aim is power and profit, rather than politics. Putin said that Russia “would be forced to take “retaliatory steps” over its neighbour Finland’s move to join NATO”. But in the event it didn’t. Sometimes Putin over-reaches himself, threatening more than he’s in a position to deliver.

In February, 2024, Russia unilaterally terminated a Finnish-Russian border agreement that dated back to 2012. It was all part of a pattern. In November 2023, Finland saw an unexpected rise in the numbers of migrants crossing from Russia, which led Finland to close the border completely, claiming that Russia had been orchestrating the movement of its people deliberately to cause disquiet. Weaponizing migration has long been a part of Russia’s tactics in Ukraine, apparently with the intention of worrying EU leaders, although Finland is well aware of the tactics and how to undermine their effectiveness. Perhaps that’s just one more reason for the Kremlin to portray Finland as an enemy. Previously, Moscow had portrayed Ukraine in a similar way, which must worry Helsinki. Moscow is an old hand at information warfare and is currently employing it to turn world attention away from the war crimes Russia has been committing in Ukraine. Moscow continues to employ this disinformation tactic, even insisting that Germany must recognise the siege of Leningrad as genocide against the Soviet people, even though all of these issues were settled in the 1947 Paris Peace Treaty. As that Finnish saying puts it so succinctly, dwelling in the past is not a good idea.

Putin believes in rewarding his “friends”, as Catherine Belton explained in her terrifying book, “Putin’s People” (which I recommend everyone to read). He and his pals started to seize power in the oil and gas industry, with the support of such people as Gennady Timchenko, the Russian oligarch and billionaire. After working in the shadows, Timchenko rose very rapidly, becoming the country’s biggest oil trader. This close circle of “advisors” did very well out of supporting Putin’s bid for power and even better when he took the presidency.

The men who had run the St. Petersburg sea port won senior positions with Gazprom, Russia’s huge gas monopoly, and Putin began to take back the country’s entire oil industry from West-leaning oligarchs. Those who had backed him did well out of that, largely shifting their fields of endeavour to Moscow, which offered more opportunities. They also copied Putin’s methods, which would accord with the advice given by Niccolò Machiavelli in his infamous book, The Prince, in the early 16^th century, in which he had written: “A wise man ought always to follow the paths beaten by great men, and to imitate those who have been supreme, so that if his ability does not equal theirs, at least it will savour of it.” Just as Putin remembers his friends, however, he also remembers every slight and criticism. Forgiveness is not in his nature, which is perhaps why he seems to hate Finland and presumably isn’t very fond of Ukraine.

| WAR IS OLD AND OVER (FOR NOW)

Finland has borders with both Russia and Sweden and at various times throughout its history it has been ruled by both. Sweden ruled Finland from the 1200s until 1809, but during the Great Northern War of 1714 to 1721, it was under Russian occupation, and it was again during the Russo-Swedish War of 1741 – 1743, after which it was ruled by Sweden again. From 1901 until 1905 there was organised resistance to rule by Russia by the Kagal Resistance Movement against Russia’s attempt to eradicate Finnish culture in what was known as a “cultural Russification” movement. Finland has not always been on the side of the angels and has some decisions its current leaders may wish had never been taken. From 1916 to 1918, some 2,000 Finns served as volunteers in the German army, where they were trained as commandos. In the final year of the First World War and coinciding with the Russian revolution, Finland declared its independence and promptly fell into a civil war in which both Russia and Germany tried to intervene. The civil war is considered to have been part of World War One and the opposing sides adopted the colours “white” for the anti-Communists, supported and supplied from Germany, and (of course) “red” for the Communist forces, who had the backing of newly-Communist Russia. The “Whites” won, and the entire affair became famous for atrocities and the mistreatment of prisoners by both sides. All-in-all, it was not Finland’s finest hour. Since Finland gained its independence in 1917, all its wars have been against Russian and/or Soviet forces. During the Second World War, Finland fought a defensive war against the Soviet Union that turned into an offensive war, with Finns fighting alongside Nazis. A Soviet attempt to conquer Finland during the so-called Winter War was defeated and Finland remained independent, although it was obliged to surrender some 10% of its territory and a large sum in war reparations to Moscow.

During the Cold War, Finland followed a policy of appeasing the Soviet Union to maintain its peace. Now, of course, those days are behind us and we all live in peace. At least, we wish we could. Finnish folk tales and fairy stories make for interesting study. In them, the female characters are brave, resourceful and kind, although they wear fur coats. There are no helpless princesses awaiting help from handsome princes riding white chargers. Finnish folklore boasts a number of legendary creatures, such as Tapio, the King of the Forest, and his wife Mielikki, the goddess of the forest and their three children. Then there is Peikko, who is literally a troll. None of them seem to have been much help to Finland during its many travails, while Keiju or Keijukainen is a sprite, normally illustrated wearing very few clothes. There is also Otso, who is the Finnish national animal, the bear. Otso is also a fairly common male first name in Finland. In legends, he was thought to be the sacred king of the animals and the leader of the forest, alongside Tapio, and was deeply respected and feared by old Finnish tribes.  Now, of course, all these old fears can be set aside. With the ever-rapacious Putin just across the border, who needs tales of trolls, ogres and demons to frighten the children?

T.Kingsley.Brooks@europe-diplomatic.eu